ARE THE RECENT TRENDS IN LIVER-CIRRHOSIS MORTALITY AFFECTED BY THE CHANGES IN ALCOHOL-CONSUMPTION - ANALYSIS OF LATENCY PERIOD IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Citation
G. Corrao et al., ARE THE RECENT TRENDS IN LIVER-CIRRHOSIS MORTALITY AFFECTED BY THE CHANGES IN ALCOHOL-CONSUMPTION - ANALYSIS OF LATENCY PERIOD IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, Journal of studies on alcohol, 58(5), 1997, pp. 486-494
Citations number
52
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Categorie Soggetti
Substance Abuse","Substance Abuse",Psychology
ISSN journal
0096-882X
Volume
58
Issue
5
Year of publication
1997
Pages
486 - 494
Database
ISI
SICI code
0096-882X(1997)58:5<486:ATRTIL>2.0.ZU;2-#
Abstract
Objective. A striking reduction of alcohol-related problems, such as l iver cirrhosis death rates, has been observed in many western countrie s in recent years. It might be expected that these declines are accomp anied by a lagged reduction in per capita alcohol consumption, since m any years of intake are required for cirrhosis of the liver to develop (lag theory). The main aim of this study is to verify the validity of the lag theory, taking as target populations those resident in Europe an countries. Method. Changes in liver cirrhosis death rates in 22 Eur opean countries between 1970 and 1989 were regressed onto changes in p er capita alcohol consumption (1961-89) to evaluate the latency period between trends of these variables. Results: Eastern countries had a l atency period between trends in alcohol consumption and in mortality r ates of many years, whereas in northern, western and southern Europe c irrhosis mortality rates were explained by their relationship with per capita alcohol consumption, which lagged a few years. In some countri es, an immediate contemporary appearance of the two phenomena was obse rved. Conclusions. These results suggest that the lag theory cannot fu lly explain the relationship between changing alcohol consumption and cirrhosis mortality and that other factors, such as alcoholism treatme nt rates, are involved in the wide geographical variability of the lat ency periods.