Prediction of sulfur dioxide concentrations at a site near downtown Santiago, Chile

Authors
Citation
P. Perez, Prediction of sulfur dioxide concentrations at a site near downtown Santiago, Chile, ATMOS ENVIR, 35(29), 2001, pp. 4929-4935
Citations number
12
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Categorie Soggetti
Environment/Ecology,"Earth Sciences
Journal title
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
ISSN journal
1352-2310 → ACNP
Volume
35
Issue
29
Year of publication
2001
Pages
4929 - 4935
Database
ISI
SICI code
1352-2310(200110)35:29<4929:POSDCA>2.0.ZU;2-Z
Abstract
We have analyzed the possibility to predict hourly averages of sulfur dioxi de concentrations in the atmosphere at a site not far from the downtown are a in the city of Santiago, Chile. We have compared the forecasts produced a ssuming persistence, linear regressions and feed forward neural networks. T he effect of meteorological conditions is included by using forecasted valu es of temperature, relative humidity and wind speed at the time of the inte nded prediction as inputs to the different models. The best predictions for hourly averages are obtained with a three-layer neural network that has ho urly averages of sulfur dioxide concentrations every 6 h on the previous da y plus the actual values of the meteorological variables as input. Training the network with 1995 data, error in 8 h in advance prediction for 1996 da ta is of the order of 30%. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserv ed.