Modelling the short term consequences of smoking cessation in England on the hospitalisation rates for acute myocardial infarction and stroke

Citation
B. Naidoo et al., Modelling the short term consequences of smoking cessation in England on the hospitalisation rates for acute myocardial infarction and stroke, TOB CONTROL, 9(4), 2000, pp. 397-400
Citations number
25
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Categorie Soggetti
Public Health & Health Care Science","Envirnomentale Medicine & Public Health
Journal title
TOBACCO CONTROL
ISSN journal
0964-4563 → ACNP
Volume
9
Issue
4
Year of publication
2000
Pages
397 - 400
Database
ISI
SICI code
0964-4563(200012)9:4<397:MTSTCO>2.0.ZU;2-3
Abstract
Objectives-To estimate the short term event and cost consequences of achiev ing two smoking cessation targets for England among a cohort of 35-64 year olds, in terms of the number of hospitalised acute myocardial infarctions ( AMIs) and strokes avoided. Design-A spreadsheet model based on previous work and using data for Englan d was constructed to simulate the effects of achieving the target set out i n the government's tobacco white paper (target 1). We also examined the con sequence of achieving the intensive smoking reduction witnessed in Californ ia (target 2). Results-Target 1 would result in 347 AMI and 214 stroke hospitalisations av oided in the year 2000, and by 2010 this would be 6386 AMI and 4969 strokes avoided. Achieving target 2 would result in 739 AMI and 455 stroke hospita lisations avoided in 2000, and 14 554 AMI and 11 304 strokes avoided by 201 0. Achieving target 1 would save pound 524 million (pound 423 million disco unted at a rate of 2.67% for stroke and 2.31% for AMI) and target 2 would s ave pound1.14 billion (pound 921 million discounted) in terms of National H ealth Service costs. Conclusion-In the short term (11 years), reductions in the prevalence of sm oking will produce sizeable reductions in both events and hospital costs.