Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia

Citation
S. Dercon et P. Krishnan, Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia, J DEV STUD, 36(6), 2000, pp. 25-53
Citations number
32
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Categorie Soggetti
EnvirnmentalStudies Geografy & Development
Journal title
JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
ISSN journal
0022-0388 → ACNP
Volume
36
Issue
6
Year of publication
2000
Pages
25 - 53
Database
ISI
SICI code
0022-0388(200008)36:6<25:VSAPIE>2.0.ZU;2-N
Abstract
Most studies examining the dynamics of welfare have found large fluctuation s in consumption over relatively short periods, suggesting substantial shor t-run movements in and out of poverty. The consequence is that cross-sectio n poverty research may not be able to identify the pool: In this study, we explore this short-run variability further: We use a data set on a panel of 1450 households in different communities in rural Ethiopia, surveyed thric e, over 18 months. On average year-to-year poverty is very similar However we find high variability in consumption and poverty, over the seasons and y ear-by-year Econometric analysis suggests that consumption is affected by i diosyncratic and common shocks, including rainfall and household-specific c rop failure, while households respond to seasonal incentives related to cha nging labour demand and prices. The results imply that a larger number of h ouseholds are vulnerable to shocks than implied by the standard poverty sta tistics, while some of the non-poor in these statistics are in fact otherwi se poor households temporally boosting their consumption as an optimal resp onse to changing seasonal incentives.