People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times

Citation
Ir. Newby-clark et al., People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times, J EXP PSY-A, 6(3), 2000, pp. 171-182
Citations number
23
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Categorie Soggetti
Psycology
Journal title
JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY-APPLIED
ISSN journal
1076-898X → ACNP
Volume
6
Issue
3
Year of publication
2000
Pages
171 - 182
Database
ISI
SICI code
1076-898X(200009)6:3<171:PFOOSA>2.0.ZU;2-V
Abstract
Task completion plans normally resemble best-case scenarios and yield overl y optimistic predictions of completion times. The authors induced participa nts to generate more pessimistic scenarios and examined completion predicti ons. Participants described a pessimistic scenario of task completion eithe r alone or with an optimistic scenario. Pessimistic scenarios did not affec t predictions or accuracy and were consistently rated less plausible than o ptimistic scenarios (Experiments 1-3). Experiment 4 independently manipulat ed scenario plausibility and optimism. Plausibility moderated the impact of optimistic, but not pessimistic, scenarios. Experiment 5 supported a motiv ational explanation of the tendency to disregard pessimistic scenarios rega rdless of their plausibility. People took pessimistic scenarios into accoun t when predicting someone else's completion times. The authors conclude tha t pessimistic-scenario generation may not be an effective debiasing techniq ue for personal predictions.