Using response surfaces to improve the search for satisfactory behavior insystem dynamics models

Citation
R. Bailey et al., Using response surfaces to improve the search for satisfactory behavior insystem dynamics models, SYST DYNAM, 16(2), 2000, pp. 75-90
Citations number
26
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Categorie Soggetti
Management
Journal title
SYSTEM DYNAMICS REVIEW
ISSN journal
0883-7066 → ACNP
Volume
16
Issue
2
Year of publication
2000
Pages
75 - 90
Database
ISI
SICI code
0883-7066(200022)16:2<75:URSTIT>2.0.ZU;2-8
Abstract
Traditional system dynamics studies rely heavily upon heuristics and experi ence. Nevertheless, mathematical exploration techniques have been introduce d as important elements for a successful study. We argue that the role of o ptimization in system dynamics studies is not to replace experience-based k nowledge, but instead to augment, facilitate, and expand the heuristic expl oration of a model. Accordingly, our approach involves narrowing the design space (using response surfaces) and the subsequent direct investigation of the simulation model (using heuristics), Response surfaces have received c onsiderable attention in optimization because of their capability to replac e complex models with analytic equations, thereby increasing computational efficiency. However, doubts exist as to the usefulness of a response-surfac e approximation of an approximation of reality (i.e., a system dynamics mod el). We demonstrate the usefulness of response surfaces in system dynamics studies with a case study involving a high-level model of an industrial eco system; our intent in using response surfaces is not to replace the simulat ion models with analytic equations, but instead to direct attention to regi ons within the design space of the original simulation with the most desira ble performance. Recommended changes to a system are based directly on the simulation model, not on response surfaces, avoiding the added level of app roximation inherent in response surfaces. The primary focus of the article is on the concept exploration approach, which is presented first. The case study towards the end is offered as supporting evidence. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.