MOMENTUM UNDER A GRADUAL APPROACH TO ZERO GROWTH

Authors
Citation
R. Schoen et Yj. Kim, MOMENTUM UNDER A GRADUAL APPROACH TO ZERO GROWTH, Population Studies, 52(3), 1998, pp. 295-299
Citations number
11
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Categorie Soggetti
Demografy
Journal title
ISSN journal
0032-4728
Volume
52
Issue
3
Year of publication
1998
Pages
295 - 299
Database
ISI
SICI code
0032-4728(1998)52:3<295:MUAGAT>2.0.ZU;2-B
Abstract
A population's growth potential is significantly underestimated by con ventional calculations of population momentum which assume an immediat e drop to replacement level fertility. Here we assume that the growth rate of births linearly declines to zero over a specified time interva l, and find simple and intuitively meaningful expressions for the size of the ultimate birth cohort and the resultant population momentum. I n particular, we find that the increase in the number of births over t he transition is equal to growth at the initial rate for half the time needed to attain a constant birth level. Thus our formula readily cal culates the growth potential of a population under a gradual approach to stationarity without the need for a numerical projection. Calculati ons for actual and hypothetical populations are presented to show the demographic impact of such gradual approaches to zero growth.