COMPLETING THE WORLDWIDE DEMOGRAPHIC-TRANSITION - THE RELEVANCE OF PAST EXPERIENCE

Authors
Citation
N. Keyfitz, COMPLETING THE WORLDWIDE DEMOGRAPHIC-TRANSITION - THE RELEVANCE OF PAST EXPERIENCE, Ambio, 21(1), 1992, pp. 26-30
Citations number
23
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Journal title
AmbioACNP
ISSN journal
0044-7447
Volume
21
Issue
1
Year of publication
1992
Pages
26 - 30
Database
ISI
SICI code
0044-7447(1992)21:1<26:CTWD-T>2.0.ZU;2-J
Abstract
The demographic transition is the change from high to low birth and de ath rates. Rough stability exists in the initial state with high rates and in the ultimate state with low rates, but the transition from the one to the other is a period of instability, that may be as short as a generation or as long as a century; since the instability takes the form of unprecedented growth, it matters a great deal over how long a time it stretches; the purpose of family-planning programs is to short en it. Much of our knowledge of the transition is due to Kingsley Davi s. The issues involved include the route of diffusion of innovations a round the world-always from the better off to the poor in the develope d countries, then to the better off and finally to the poor in the les s developed. As the demographic transition has moved along that route so will changes in consumption patterns. The zero correlation between population growth and economic growth among countries has been interpr eted as proving that controlling population growth is no help to devel opment; Davis's representation of the transition gives a quite opposit e interpretation of the zero correlation (1).