PERCEIVED RISK OF PUNISHMENT AND THE COMMISSION OF HOMICIDES - A COVARIANCE STRUCTURE-ANALYSIS

Citation
Hj. Brumm et Do. Cloninger, PERCEIVED RISK OF PUNISHMENT AND THE COMMISSION OF HOMICIDES - A COVARIANCE STRUCTURE-ANALYSIS, Journal of economic behavior & organization, 31(1), 1996, pp. 1-11
Citations number
28
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Categorie Soggetti
Economics
ISSN journal
0167-2681
Volume
31
Issue
1
Year of publication
1996
Pages
1 - 11
Database
ISI
SICI code
0167-2681(1996)31:1<1:PROPAT>2.0.ZU;2-#
Abstract
If the behavior of potential murderers does in fact respond To the ris k of punishment, it is the perceived risk rather than the ex post risk as measured by arrest rates, conviction rates, or execution rates. Pr evious empirical studies of homicide behavior have, by and large, igno red this distinction. The present paper accommodates this distinction by estimating a covariance structure model in which the perceived risk is treated as an endogenous latent variable, with two measures of san ctions as its indicators. Cross-section data are used for the estimati on. One of the principal findings is that the homicide commission rate is significantly and negatively correlated with the perceived risk of punishment, which provides empirical support for the deterrence hypot hesis (Ehrlich, 1975). The other principal findings are that the perce ived risk of punishment is (a) significantly and negatively correlated with the homicide commission rate, and (b) significantly and positive ly correlated with police presence. The latter results provide empiric al support for the resource saturation hypothesis (Fisher and Nagin, 1 978).