CRIME BETAS - A PORTFOLIO MEASURE OF CRIMINAL ACTIVITY

Citation
Do. Cloninger et R. Marchesini, CRIME BETAS - A PORTFOLIO MEASURE OF CRIMINAL ACTIVITY, Social science quarterly, 76(3), 1995, pp. 634-647
Citations number
13
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Categorie Soggetti
Social, Sciences, Interdisciplinary
Journal title
ISSN journal
0038-4941
Volume
76
Issue
3
Year of publication
1995
Pages
634 - 647
Database
ISI
SICI code
0038-4941(1995)76:3<634:CB-APM>2.0.ZU;2-Y
Abstract
Objective. The quest for a unified empirical methodology suitable to a ll social scientists is the basis for the development of an alternativ e method of measuring and evaluating changes in criminal activity for individual communities. A coefficient, beta, is derived that relates t he percentage change in the incidence of a specific crime in a given c ommunity to the percentage change of all crime in the respective state or nation. Methods. Monthly changes in a specific crime are linearly regressed against corresponding changes in a state or national crime i ndex. Beta is the coefficient of the index variable. This methodology eschews the supply of criminal offense approach in favor of a portfoli o approach employing only one independent variable-changes in the aggr egate crime index. Problems of multicollinearity and debate over the f orm and specification of the criminal supply equation are thereby rend ered moot. Results. Betas are calculated for each category I crime by state and city (Texas). The derived betas evince stability over time a nd consistency over different indexes. Conclusions. The betas may be u sed to identify those communities experiencing abnormal changes in cri minal activity and hence candidates for further study.