Dj. Vandekaa, ANCHORED NARRATIVES - THE STORY AND FINDINGS OF HALF A CENTURY OF RESEARCH INTO THE DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY, Population Studies, 50(3), 1996, pp. 389
This paper reviews half a century of research into the determinants of
fertility. It is argued that the quest for the determinants of fertil
ity behaviour and change during that period can best be interpreted as
the development of a series of sub-narratives from different discipli
nary perspectives and orientations. These are normally based upon the
initial narrative of the demographic transition and usually take the f
orm of a verbal theory illustrated by a 'box and arrow' diagram. On oc
casions formalization has been attempted. Different parts of the initi
al narrative have been highlighted at different times depending on pol
icy interest, improvements in technical skills, availability of data,
changes in social setting, and the degree of satisfaction with the dom
inant sub-narrative of the day. There is every reason to believe that
the research process identified will continue and will lead to a furth
er accumulation of knowledge. In fact, all important variables have pr
obably already been identified. That it will, ultimately, lead to a si
ngle, consolidated narrative fully satisfactory for all settings and f
or all time is, however, highly unlikely.