AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL, WARMING IN CHINA

Authors
Citation
L. Erda, AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL, WARMING IN CHINA, Water, air and soil pollution, 92(1-2), 1996, pp. 63-73
Citations number
14
Language
INGLESE
art.tipo
Article
Categorie Soggetti
Environmental Sciences","Water Resources
ISSN journal
0049-6979
Volume
92
Issue
1-2
Year of publication
1996
Pages
63 - 73
Database
ISI
SICI code
0049-6979(1996)92:1-2<63:AVAATG>2.0.ZU;2-#
Abstract
This paper discusses the vulnerability and adaptation of the agricultu ral sector of China to global warming. Based on a summarization of Chi nese agricultural and general circulation model trends, adverse impact s on China's agriculture caused by a warming and drying climate were i dentified. Because of limited irrigation potential the sustainable dev elopment of Chinese agriculture will be difficult. Six sensitive agric ultural areas located on the edges of different agroecological zones, and seven provinces with high vulnerability to the impacts on agricult ure, were identified On the basis of an estimation of the potential su pply of agricultural products and demand for food, the annual incremen tal costs for adaptation to climate change would be US$0.8-3.48 billio n; without adaptation, the annual agricultural loss due to global warm ing would be US$1.37-79.98 billion from 2000 to 2050. Adaptive measure s discussed include intensive management and the possibility of a trip artite structure of planting that would entail coordinated development of grain crops, feed crops, and cash crops.