This paper discusses the vulnerability and adaptation of the agricultu
ral sector of China to global warming. Based on a summarization of Chi
nese agricultural and general circulation model trends, adverse impact
s on China's agriculture caused by a warming and drying climate were i
dentified. Because of limited irrigation potential the sustainable dev
elopment of Chinese agriculture will be difficult. Six sensitive agric
ultural areas located on the edges of different agroecological zones,
and seven provinces with high vulnerability to the impacts on agricult
ure, were identified On the basis of an estimation of the potential su
pply of agricultural products and demand for food, the annual incremen
tal costs for adaptation to climate change would be US$0.8-3.48 billio
n; without adaptation, the annual agricultural loss due to global warm
ing would be US$1.37-79.98 billion from 2000 to 2050. Adaptive measure
s discussed include intensive management and the possibility of a trip
artite structure of planting that would entail coordinated development
of grain crops, feed crops, and cash crops.